Grand challenge "Modelling and simulation"


Brief abstract motivating, and underlying gaps grounding the grand challenge

Using computer simulations in examining, explaining and predicting social processes and relationships as well as measuring the possible impact of policies in an innovative way (e.g. by also involving open and big data, innovative visualisation, serious games, and other new technical and/or social innovations into the simulations) has become an important part of policy making. The recent focus of research on ICT-supported public governance and policy modelling spurred by the European Commission’s funding programs in framework programme 7[1] and horizon 2020[2] has brought much attention to the field. Yet, along eGovPoliNet’s activities, we still see the need for extensive research in the field, especially to overcome drawbacks of silo approaches. The complexity encompassed with modelling public policies demands for different - often distinct - political, economic, social and technical disciplines to work together to leverage the benefits of different approaches to understanding policy problems and designing innovative policy responses. However, traditional fragmentation among disciplines still keeps researchers within their own disciplines to develop silo-approaches. In order to fully address policy modelling challenges, researchers need to bring together their knowledge and share their expertise within a multidisciplinary collaboration and to integrate advancements from different fields of research (cf. (Majstorovic & Wimmer, A Collaborative Approach to Study Policy Modelling Research and Practice from Different Disciplines, 2014)).

Current paradigms of policy modelling using simulation models however are constrained by their particular focus. Real-world systems and social processes are complex and require the consideration of parameters at different levels: macro-level, micro-level as well as social behaviour and interconnections between actors. Accordingly, applying one singular approach to modelling a real-world problem is constrained by the particular modelling approach it focuses on. For example, a system dynamics model may lack precision and social interactions because the missing factors are not accounted for by the methodology. While meeting the appropriate level of detail included in a model’s description is essential, the success of a simulation model depends in part on striking the right balance between complexity and simplicity. Further, we see a growing need for integrating and combining different modelling paradigms to accommodate the diverse aspects to be considered in complex policy contexts. Unifying different modelling theories under an umbrella of comprehensive policy modelling platforms is an urgent research need. Such research should put forward a meta-model of how individual simulation paradigms can be combined, and suggestions of “clever” junctions of individual smaller (and self-contained) simulation models dedicated to individual aspects to be modelled (see (Majstorovic D. , Wimmer, Lay-Yee, Davis, & Ahrweiler, 2015), and it should incorporate ties to related policies to better understand interdependencies among distinct decision-making procedures. Multidisciplinary research needs to be strengthened and more intensely focused in policy research. Best practices of international and multidisciplinary research need to be shared more extensively. eGovPoliNet has made a start, yet further initiatives need to follow to sustain the work.

Challenges to be faced, formulated along a set of research questions

The following research questions express this grand challenge and demand extensive and complementary research in the domain of ICT supported public governance and policy modelling:

  • How to integrate various types of simulation approaches and platforms to offer more powerful simulation environments that are capable of capturing distinct dynamics and aspects of a social problem / public policy; the underlying assumption is that existing simulation paradigms focus on particular aspects of a policy problem, while neglecting others; a hypothesis is that a combination of simulation paradigms would enable more reliable assessments and predictions
  • How to test simulation systems to be valid and reliable for predicting real situations (strong relationship with the grand challenge “Translating research results into policy actions and support” to turn research on policy modelling into practice)
  • How to effectively support the communication function about what models tell us given the complexity of public policies; including how to best visualise policy models and the results of simulation runs to make them quickly and easily understandable for end users
  • How to make simulation models usable for end users without compromising the complexity of the problems (social and others) being modelled, and through providing insight into the mechanisms of the modelling and simulation approaches
  • How can big data/open data and the vast amount of information be integrated into simulation platforms and effectively used to develop reliable simulation models
  • How can modelling and simulation procedures (the application of simulation paradigms, the use of the supporting ICT tools, and the interpretation of simulation results towards easily understandable communications for end users) become more effective and efficient, and how to link decision-making across distinct policy domains that influence each other
  • How to reduce the risks of misuse of simulation models; including what kinds of misuse of simulation could be assumed
  • How to effectively explore crowdsourcing for policy modelling and simulation
  • How to effectively involve stakeholders (including end users) into policy modelling and simulation initiatives and how to overcome existing challenge of cultures that resist adopting such innovative, comprehensive and collaborative policy and simulation solutions (strongly related to the grand challenge “Citizen and stakeholder engagement”)
  • How to discover and identify best practices of multidisciplinary research that explores innovative ICT in different policy domains; how to transfer experiences of multidisciplinary collaborations into distinct policy domains.

 

Innovations and wider impact expected when tackling the research demands

The expected innovations and wider impact of this grand challenge are manifold. First of all, better support with more reliable and trustworthy policy and simulation models and with models of higher quality provides an important ground for better policy decision-making.

Citizens and other stakeholders will be enabled to more actively engage in policy modelling processes and to more easily understand complex policy models and simulation results. Also, they will be enabled to provide their opinions with regard to decisions of policy-makers. Also policy-makers can more easily assess and measure the impacts of their decisions.

The blending of different simulation models provides more insight into the effects of prospective policies. This requires that the different models are integrated and as much evidence (empirical (qualitative and quantitative) data, open and big data, stakeholder views and positions, etc.) as possible is used to inform the models. Creating valid and reliable models that also indicate links to related decision-making is one of the key impact expected when tackling the research demands.

Innovations expected are integrated policy modelling and simulation platforms that are easily manageable and usable and that enable crowds to engage in exploring simulations of complex policy domains. Advancements in multidisciplinary research (triggered also by sharing existing good practices of multidisciplinary policy research such as global health, climate change) will facilitate the integration of different tools, methods and concepts of distinct simulation paradigms. The use of complex tools will make policy decision-making more explorative in terms of testing hypotheses and on this basis making better-informed and more reliable decisions, which in turn leads also to improved performance of government.


[1] See: http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/programme/challenge7-governance_en.html (last access: 30/01/2015) for call 4, http://cordis.europa.eu/fp7/ict/programme/challenge5_en.html (last access: 30/01/2015) for call 11

[2] See http://ec.europa.eu/programmes/horizon2020/ (last access: 30/01/2015)


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